Bamboohut

Let the orange revolution begin.

Five Step Plan

A great editorial in the New York Times yesterday that gives an adroit review of the three year long conflict as well as a 5 step plan for solving the impasse.The author’s five steps are:

1. Drop charges against Thaksin and begin a discussion of reconciliation.

My response: There’s only one person who can clear Thaksin at this point, and we haven’t heard from him in awhile.

2. Stopping letting the courts ban political parties just to diffuse a crisis.

My response: I completely agree, the Phoenix from the Ashes nature of red-shirts and yellow-shirts means the party dissolutions mean nothing anyway, just short term halts in parliament. Would a new judiciary help this? I don’t know enough about the Thai courts, but I think there may need to be new blood on the benches before you get much of a change.

3. Install a caretaker government for 2 or 3 years, then call a general election

My response: I don’t think Abhisit will hand his power over to a caretaker government after his victory this week. Instead he will work to consolidate his power and delay a vote for as long as possible, leaving the red-shirts to grumble and complain. He may hope to hold on long enough to pick away at red-shirt seats, in the same way he got Newin to switch over.

4. Once an election is held, all sides must abide by the results

My response: This won’t happen, as the author admits, political leaders now see the efficacy of protests. But even deeper than that, most yellow-shirts don’t believe in democracy to start with. In their minds, the red-shirts are a bunch of ignorant farmers who get tricked into voting for corrupt sleazebags who will stop at nothing to enrich themselves and destroy the country’s heirarchy. They will never accept the almost inevitable red-shirts victory at the polls.

5. The military must be strictly neutral

My response: For the first four points the author wrote nearly a paragraph each. For this final point he wrote the six words above. Nothing else. So apparently he thinks this is an easy mission? Unfortunately, developing mature civil-military relations in a country with weak democratic institutions and a cultural inclination for heirarchy and order could take soooooome time. Certain leaders in the country today are very astute at politically manipulating the military. And the military is simultaneously pretty good at looking out for itself.

So, all in all, these are some great proposals, but the author was unable to provide any insight into how to accomplish even the first of these five tasks. If these are the things Thailand needs to do before it can resolve the red-yellow divide, then take a seat, because its going to be awhile.

Sondhi in serious condition after assassination attempt

Sondhi, the leader of the yellow-shirts and the man responsible for the airport seizure last year, is in serious condition after getting shot in the head during an assassination attempt. Sondhi’s car was driving on Samsen road in Bangkok when it was blocked by a pickup truck. Men in the back of the pickup truck then opened fire, hitting Sondhi in the skull. He now has a bullet lodge in his brain, causing serious bleeding. Sondhi was originally a Thaksin supporter and ally, but turned against Thaksin in 2005.

Is this just the start of a new wave of assassination style retaliations? Its well known in Isan that the red-shirts have a number of very skilled assassins (a few of the fellows in Khon Kaen once met one at a temple outside the city, and it was a woman shocking enough). As the yellow-shirt government continues to track down and arrest red-shirt leaders, it looks like the red-shirts have found a way to fight back, a dirty way, but a way nonetheless. This is a sad development, but I’m not surprised. And if I were Newin Chidchob, I’d be beefing up my personal security right now, cause we all know he’s next on Thaksin’s list.

A call for elections

A great editorial in the WSJ written by a FEER editor. He asserts that Abhisit needs to call for a general election as soon as possible. Otherwise, the author writes, the prime minister may lose the legitimacy he has gained through his victory over the red-shirts.

Its a good thought, and I agreed, but the problem is that Abhisit has no chance of winning a general election, no yellow-shirt government does. The red-shirt’s greatest strength isn’t Thaksin’s money or their ability to shut down the capital, its their sheer numbers at the polling stations, and Abhisit knows that. I bet he’ll cling on for as long as he can.